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<div class="page-title">
<h1>Monthly GDP</h1>
</div><!-- .page-title -->
<main id="main">
<section>
<article class="prose">
<noscript><p class="noscript-warning">This page requires JavaScript to display interactive charts. The <a href="files/gdpm.csv">CSV data</a> can still be downloaded directly.</p></noscript>
<p class="callout accent-red">Monthly US GDP, estimated by smoothing official quarterly data across months and incorporating the best available forecast for the current quarter.</p>
<div class="split-row chart-row">
<div class="card accent-red">
<div class="card-header">
<span class="card-title">Monthly US GDP</span>
<a href="files/gdpm.csv" title="Download as .csv" download><svg class="icon" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4M7 10l5 5 5-5M12 15V3"/></svg></a>
</div>
<div class="card-body">
<div class="chart-body-header">
<span class="card-subtitle">USD, seasonally adjusted annual rate</span>
<div class="btn-group chart-toggle accent-red">
<button class="btn active" data-series="nominal">Nominal</button>
<button class="btn" data-series="real">Real</button>
</div>
</div>
<canvas id="lineChart" role="img" aria-label="Line chart showing monthly US GDP estimates"></canvas>
</div>
<div class="card-footer">
<span class="chart-filter"><button type="button" onclick="toggleTimeRange()">Recent 3 years</button></span>
<span class="chart-source">Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed</span>
</div>
</div>
<div class="info-boxes">
<div class="info-box info-section accent-red">
<h3>Latest Estimate</h3>
<p class="key-stat-row"><span class="note estimate-period" id="estimate-period"></span> <span class="key-stat" id="estimate-number">—</span></p>
<p class="estimate-updated">Data as of <span id="estimate-asof">—</span></p>
</div>
<div class="info-box info-section accent-red">
<h3>Download Data</h3>
<p class="download-desc">Monthly nominal and real GDP in billions of USD, seasonally adjusted annual rate</p>
<a href="files/gdpm.csv" class="btn-primary" download><svg class="icon" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4M7 10l5 5 5-5M12 15V3"/></svg> gdpm.csv<span class="file-meta" id="file-meta"></span></a>
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<article class="method-section prose">
<h2 class="heading-accent accent-red">Overview</h2>
<p>Monthly GDP provides a way to put other economic data into context. GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity, but it's only published quarterly, with a lag of several months. This creates a gap when comparing recent data to overall economic scale.</p>
<p>For example, suppose you want to track education spending over time. The latest spending figure might be more recent than the latest GDP release. Without a monthly GDP estimate, you're left comparing raw dollar amounts—which can be misleading. Headlines might declare that "spending is at record highs" or "increasing rapidly," when in fact spending <em>as a share of GDP</em> has fallen over time. <strong>The denominator matters.</strong></p>
<p>The same applies to credit card debt, the trade deficit, wage income, the size of the stock market, or any other dollar-denominated measure. This tool provides simple monthly estimates of US nominal and real GDP, updated daily and freely available for download, making it easy to express data relative to overall economic activity.</p>
<hr class="section-bar accent-red">
<h2 class="heading-accent accent-red">Approach</h2>
<p>The monthly GDP series is constructed by interpolating quarterly data to monthly frequency:</p>
<div class="step-cards">
<div class="info-box step-card">
<div class="step-number">1</div>
<div class="step-content">
<h3>Quarterly GDP</h3>
<p>Start with official nominal and real GDP from BEA (via FRED).</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="info-box step-card">
<div class="step-number">2</div>
<div class="step-content">
<h3>Current Quarter</h3>
<p>Estimate the latest quarter using Atlanta Fed GDPNow (real growth) and Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast to derive nominal growth.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="info-box step-card">
<div class="step-number">3</div>
<div class="step-content">
<h3>Interpolate</h3>
<p>Assign quarterly values to mid-quarter months, then linearly interpolate. This preserves the quarterly average.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="info-box step-card">
<div class="step-number">4</div>
<div class="step-content">
<h3>Rebase (Real series)</h3>
<p>Convert historical real GDP into current dollars, so past values reflect today's price level.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p>The chart below illustrates the interpolation process. The stepped gray line shows published quarterly GDP values. The smooth red line shows the monthly interpolated series. The most recent quarter includes the nowcast estimate.</p>
<div class="card comparison-chart accent-red">
<div class="card-header">
<span class="card-title">Quarterly vs. Monthly Nominal GDP</span>
</div>
<div class="card-body">
<canvas id="comparisonChart" role="img" aria-label="Line chart comparing quarterly and monthly nominal GDP"></canvas>
</div>
</div>
<hr class="section-bar accent-red">
<h2 class="heading-accent accent-red">Data Sources</h2>
<ul>
<li>Quarterly Nominal GDP: <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP">FRED (GDP)</a></li>
<li>Quarterly Real GDP: <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1">FRED (GDPC1)</a></li>
<li>Real GDP Nowcast: <a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow">Atlanta Fed GDPNow</a></li>
<li>Inflation Nowcast: <a href="https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting">Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting</a></li>
</ul>
<hr class="section-bar accent-red">
<h2 class="heading-accent accent-red">Updates</h2>
<p>The data file is updated daily. Source code is available on <a href="https://github.com/bdecon/bdecon.github.io">GitHub</a>.</p>
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<p><time datetime="2026">2026</time>, by Brian Dew</p>
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