Metaculus · ncarazon · May 7, 2026 · May 11, 2026 · May 11, 2026 · May 12, 2026
diff --git a/front_end/messages/cs.json b/front_end/messages/cs.json
@@ -2169,5 +2169,6 @@
   "whyTrustMetaculusLessNoise": "Předpovědi Metaculus, poháněné davem, prořezávají šum tím, že zakládají každou předpověď na transparentních důkazech, odpovědném skóre a desetiletí doložené přesnosti. Metaculus vybavuje politiky, výzkumníky, novináře a korporátní organizace předpověďmi založenými na důkazech, které poskytují jasný, kvantifikovatelný vhled do nejkritičtějších nejistot světa. Prozkoumejte naši nabídku <servicesLink>Business řešení</servicesLink> a zjistěte, jak může Metaculus zlepšit rozhodování vaší organizace.",
   "publishTimeLockedDescription": "Čas publikace nelze po vytvoření změnit.",
   "nMore": "{count} více...",
+  "noHistogramData": "Žádná data histogramu nejsou k dispozici",
   "thousandsOfOpenQuestions": "20 000+ otevřených otázek"
 }
diff --git a/front_end/messages/en.json b/front_end/messages/en.json
@@ -1185,6 +1185,7 @@
   "deselectAll": "deselect all",
   "forecastDataIsEmpty": "Forecast data is empty",
   "noForecastsYet": "No forecasts yet",
+  "noHistogramData": "No histogram data available",
   "RevealTemporarily": "Reveal Temporarily",
   "CPIsHidden": "Community Prediction is hidden",
   "createdByUserOnDate": "Created by {user} on {date}",

diff --git a/front_end/messages/es.json b/front_end/messages/es.json
@@ -2169,5 +2169,6 @@
   "whyTrustMetaculusLessNoise": "Los pronósticos impulsados por la multitud de Metaculus cortan el ruido al basar cada predicción en evidencia transparente, puntuaciones responsables y una década de precisión demostrada. Metaculus equipa a los responsables de políticas, investigadores, periodistas y organizaciones corporativas con pronósticos basados en evidencia que ofrecen una visión clara y cuantificable de las incertidumbres más críticas del mundo. Explora nuestra suite de <servicesLink>Soluciones Empresariales</servicesLink> para aprender cómo Metaculus puede mejorar la toma de decisiones de tu organización.",
   "publishTimeLockedDescription": "La hora de publicación no puede cambiarse después de la creación.",
   "nMore": "{count} más...",
+  "noHistogramData": "No hay datos de histograma disponibles",
   "thousandsOfOpenQuestions": "20,000+ preguntas abiertas"
 }
diff --git a/front_end/messages/pt.json b/front_end/messages/pt.json
@@ -2167,5 +2167,6 @@
   "whyTrustMetaculusLessNoise": "As previsões baseadas na multidão do Metaculus cortam o ruído ao basear cada previsão em evidências transparentes, pontuações responsáveis e uma década de precisão demonstrada. O Metaculus equipa formuladores de políticas, pesquisadores, jornalistas e organizações corporativas com previsões baseadas em evidências que oferecem insights claros e quantificáveis sobre as incertezas mais críticas do mundo. Explore nosso conjunto de <servicesLink>Soluções Empresariais</servicesLink> para saber mais sobre como o Metaculus pode melhorar a tomada de decisões da sua organização.",
   "publishTimeLockedDescription": "O horário de publicação não pode ser alterado após a criação.",
   "nMore": "{count} a mais...",
+  "noHistogramData": "Não há dados de histograma disponíveis",
   "thousandsOfOpenQuestions": "20.000+ perguntas abertas"
 }
diff --git a/front_end/messages/zh-TW.json b/front_end/messages/zh-TW.json
@@ -2166,5 +2166,6 @@
   "whyTrustMetaculusLessNoise": "Metaculus 的群眾驅動預測通過將每一個預測植根於透明的證據、負責的計分和十年的已證準確性，抑制了噪音。Metaculus 為政策制定者、研究人員、記者和企業組織提供基於證據的預測，為全球最重要的不確定性提供清晰、可量化的洞察。探索我們的 <servicesLink>企業解決方案</servicesLink>，了解 Metaculus 如何改善貴組織的決策。",
   "publishTimeLockedDescription": "建立後將無法更改發佈時間。",
   "nMore": "還有 {count} 個...",
+  "noHistogramData": "沒有可用的直方圖數據",
   "thousandsOfOpenQuestions": "20,000+ 開放問題"
 }
diff --git a/front_end/messages/zh.json b/front_end/messages/zh.json
@@ -2171,5 +2171,6 @@
   "whyTrustMetaculusLessNoise": "Metaculus 的众包预测通过以透明证据、可追溯的评分以及十年证明的准确性为基础来削减预测中的噪音。Metaculus 为政策制定者、研究人员、记者和企业组织提供基于证据的预测，为世界上最重要的不确定性提供清晰、可量化的洞察。了解我们的<servicesLink>企业解决方案</servicesLink>，了解 Metaculus 如何改善贵组织的决策。",
   "publishTimeLockedDescription": "创建后将无法更改发布时间。",
   "nMore": "{count} 更多...",
+  "noHistogramData": "没有可用的直方图数据",
   "thousandsOfOpenQuestions": "20,000+ 开放问题"
 }
diff --git a/...pp/(main)/questions/[id]/components/key_factors/key_factors_question_consumer_section.tsx b/...pp/(main)/questions/[id]/components/key_factors/key_factors_question_consumer_section.tsx
@@ -7,12 +7,15 @@ import { useCommentsFeed } from "@/app/(main)/components/comments_feed_provider"
 import { openKeyFactorsSectionAndScrollTo } from "@/app/(main)/questions/[id]/components/key_factors/utils";
 import { PostStatus, PostWithForecasts } from "@/types/post";
 import { sendAnalyticsEvent } from "@/utils/analytics";
+import { getQuestionForecastAvailability } from "@/utils/questions/forecastAvailability";
+import { isQuestionPost } from "@/utils/questions/helpers";
 
 import {
   MAX_TOP_KEY_FACTORS,
   useTopKeyFactorsCarouselItems,
 } from "./hooks/use_top_key_factors_carousel_items";
 import KeyFactorDetailOverlay from "./key_factor_detail_overlay";
+import KeyFactorsCarousel from "./key_factors_carousel";
 import KeyFactorsConsumerCarousel from "./key_factors_consumer_carousel";
 import { useShouldHideKeyFactors } from "./use_should_hide_key_factors";
 import { useQuestionLayout } from "../question_layout/question_layout_context";
@@ -41,14 +44,21 @@ const KeyFactorsQuestionConsumerSection: FC<Props> = ({ post }) => {
 
   if (post.status === PostStatus.RESOLVED) return null;
 
+  const postForecastAvailability = isQuestionPost(post)
+    ? getQuestionForecastAvailability(post.question)
+    : null;
+  const forecastIsEmpty =
+    !!postForecastAvailability?.isEmpty &&
+    !postForecastAvailability?.cpRevealsOn;
+
+  if (topItems.length === 0 && !forecastIsEmpty) return null;
+
   const openKeyFactorsElement = (selector: string) => {
     requestKeyFactorsExpand?.();
     openKeyFactorsSectionAndScrollTo({ selector, mobileOnly: false });
     sendAnalyticsEvent("KeyFactorClick", { event_label: "fromTopList" });
   };
 
-  if (topItems.length === 0) return null;
-
   return (
     <div
       className="-ml-4 flex w-[calc(100%+32px)] flex-col pb-4 sm:ml-0 sm:mt-8 sm:w-full"
@@ -58,18 +68,33 @@ const KeyFactorsQuestionConsumerSection: FC<Props> = ({ post }) => {
         <div className="text-sm text-blue-800 dark:text-blue-800-dark">
           {t("topKeyFactors")}
         </div>
-        <button
-          onClick={() => {
-            openKeyFactorsElement("[id='key-factors']");
-            sendAnalyticsEvent("KeyFactorViewAllClick");
-          }}
-          className="text-center text-sm font-normal leading-5 text-blue-600 hover:text-blue-700 dark:text-blue-600-dark dark:hover:text-blue-700-dark"
-        >
-          {t("viewAll", { count: totalCount })}
-        </button>
+        {!forecastIsEmpty && (
+          <button
+            onClick={() => {
+              openKeyFactorsElement("[id='key-factors']");
+              sendAnalyticsEvent("KeyFactorViewAllClick");
+            }}
+            className="text-center text-sm font-normal leading-5 text-blue-600 hover:text-blue-700 dark:text-blue-600-dark dark:hover:text-blue-700-dark"
+          >
+            {t("viewAll", { count: totalCount })}
+          </button>
+        )}
       </div>
 
-      <KeyFactorsConsumerCarousel post={post} items={topItems} />
+      {forecastIsEmpty ? (
+        <KeyFactorsCarousel
+          listClassName="pb-0 [&>:first-child]:pl-4 [&>:last-child]:pr-4 sm:[&>:first-child]:pl-0 sm:[&>:last-child]:pr-0"
+          items={Array.from({ length: 5 })}
+          renderItem={(_, i) => (
+            <div
+              key={i}
+              className="h-[196px] w-[160px] shrink-0 rounded-xl bg-blue-200 dark:bg-blue-200-dark sm:w-[200px]"
+            />
+          )}
+        />
+      ) : (
+        <KeyFactorsConsumerCarousel post={post} items={topItems} />
+      )}
 
       {keyFactorOverlay?.kind === "keyFactor" && (
         <KeyFactorDetailOverlay

diff --git a/front_end/src/app/(main)/questions/[id]/components/multiple_choices_chart_view/index.tsx b/front_end/src/app/(main)/questions/[id]/components/multiple_choices_chart_view/index.tsx
@@ -319,10 +319,11 @@ const MultiChoicesChartView: FC<Props> = ({
       )}
 
       {isTooltipActive &&
+        !hideCP &&
+        !forecastAvailability?.cpRevealsOn &&
         !activeTimelineMarkerId &&
         (tooltipChoices.length > 0 ||
           !!tooltipUserChoices?.length ||
-          !!forecastAvailability?.cpRevealsOn ||
           !!forecastAvailability?.isEmpty) && (
           <FloatingPortal>
             <div

diff --git a/front_end/src/app/(main)/questions/[id]/components/question_page_shell/index.tsx b/front_end/src/app/(main)/questions/[id]/components/question_page_shell/index.tsx
@@ -5,10 +5,13 @@ import { FC, Fragment, ReactNode, useEffect } from "react";
 
 import useCoherenceLinksContext from "@/app/(main)/components/coherence_links_provider";
 import { PostStatusBox } from "@/app/(main)/questions/[id]/components/post_status_box";
+import UpcomingCP from "@/components/consumer_post_card/upcoming_cp";
 import DetailedGroupCard from "@/components/detailed_question_card/detailed_group_card";
 import DetailedQuestionCard from "@/components/detailed_question_card/detailed_question_card";
 import ForecastMaker from "@/components/forecast_maker";
 import CommunityDisclaimer from "@/components/post_card/community_disclaimer";
+import { ContinuousChartCursorProvider } from "@/contexts/continuous_chart_cursor_context";
+import { useHideCP } from "@/contexts/cp_context";
 import { useContentTranslatedBannerContext } from "@/contexts/translations_banner_context";
 import {
   GroupOfQuestionsGraphType,
@@ -19,6 +22,7 @@ import {
 import { TournamentType } from "@/types/projects";
 import { QuestionType } from "@/types/question";
 import cn from "@/utils/core/cn";
+import { getQuestionForecastAvailability } from "@/utils/questions/forecastAvailability";
 import {
   checkGroupOfQuestionsPostType,
   isContinuousQuestion,
@@ -38,6 +42,8 @@ import { QuestionVariantComposer } from "../question_variant_composer";
 import ActionRow from "../question_view/action_row";
 import ConsumerQuestionPrediction from "../question_view/consumer_question_view/prediction";
 import QuestionTimeline from "../question_view/consumer_question_view/timeline";
+import QuestionHeaderCPStatus from "../question_view/forecaster_question_view/question_header/question_header_cp_status";
+import RevealCPButton from "../reveal_cp_button";
 
 const baseSectionClassName =
   "relative z-10 flex w-[59rem] max-w-full flex-col gap-6 overflow-x-clip rounded border border-blue-400 p-4 text-gray-900 dark:border-blue-200-dark dark:text-gray-900-dark lg:p-8";
@@ -128,6 +134,7 @@ export const ConsumerShell: FC<{
 }> = ({ postData, preselectedGroupQuestionId, mobileSidebar }) => {
   const t = useTranslations();
   const { aggregateCoherenceLinks } = useCoherenceLinksContext();
+  const { hideCP } = useHideCP();
 
   const isFanGraph =
     postData.group_of_questions?.graph_type ===
@@ -151,9 +158,16 @@ export const ConsumerShell: FC<{
     !isContinuousSingleQuestion &&
     !isMultipleChoice;
 
+  const binaryForecastAvailability =
+    isBinarySingleQuestion && isQuestionPost(postData)
+      ? getQuestionForecastAvailability(postData.question)
+      : null;
+
   const showSideBySide =
-    (isMultipleChoice || isNonFanGroup || isBinarySingleQuestion) &&
-    !isContinuousSingleQuestion;
+    isMultipleChoice ||
+    isNonFanGroup ||
+    isBinarySingleQuestion ||
+    isContinuousSingleQuestion;
 
   const showClosedMessageMultipleChoice =
     isMultipleChoicePost(postData) &&
@@ -166,7 +180,14 @@ export const ConsumerShell: FC<{
     aggregateCoherenceLinks?.data.filter(isDisplayableQuestionLink) ?? [];
   const hasKeyFactors = (postData.key_factors?.length ?? 0) > 0;
   const hasQuestionLinks = questionLinkAggregates.length > 0;
-  const shouldShowKeyFactorsSection = hasKeyFactors || hasQuestionLinks;
+  const questionForecastAvailability = isQuestionPost(postData)
+    ? getQuestionForecastAvailability(postData.question)
+    : null;
+  const isForecastEmpty =
+    !!questionForecastAvailability?.isEmpty &&
+    !questionForecastAvailability?.cpRevealsOn;
+  const shouldShowKeyFactorsSection =
+    hasKeyFactors || hasQuestionLinks || isForecastEmpty;
 
   return (
     <div className="flex flex-col gap-1.5 md:gap-4">
@@ -191,7 +212,7 @@ export const ConsumerShell: FC<{
         <div className="order-2 sm:order-none">
           <ActionRow post={postData} variant="consumer" />
         </div>
-        <div className="order-1 mt-3 sm:order-none sm:mt-8 md:-mt-2 lg:-mt-3">
+        <div className="order-1 mt-3 sm:order-none sm:mt-0 md:-mt-2 lg:-mt-3">
           {showClosedMessageMultipleChoice && (
             <p className="m-0 mb-8 text-center text-sm leading-[20px] text-gray-700 dark:text-gray-700-dark">
               {t("predictionClosedMessage")}
@@ -204,26 +225,60 @@ export const ConsumerShell: FC<{
                 !isMultipleChoice &&
                 !isNonFanGroup &&
                 "flex-col-reverse",
-              showSideBySide && "sm:flex-row sm:items-center sm:gap-8"
+              showSideBySide &&
+                cn("sm:flex-row sm:items-center", {
+                  "sm:gap-0 md:gap-8": isBinarySingleQuestion,
+                  "sm:gap-8": !isBinarySingleQuestion,
+                })
             )}
           >
-            <div
-              className={cn(
-                showSideBySide && !isDateGroup ? "order-1" : undefined,
-                isContinuousSingleQuestion && "md:hidden"
-              )}
-            >
-              <ConsumerQuestionPrediction postData={postData} />
-            </div>
+            {isBinarySingleQuestion && isQuestionPost(postData) ? (
+              <div className="order-1 flex w-64 flex-col items-center justify-center gap-[18px] self-center sm:self-stretch">
+                {hideCP ? (
+                  <RevealCPButton />
+                ) : binaryForecastAvailability?.cpRevealsOn ? (
+                  <UpcomingCP
+                    cpRevealsOn={binaryForecastAvailability.cpRevealsOn}
+                  />
+                ) : (
+                  <QuestionHeaderCPStatus
+                    question={postData.question}
+                    size="lg"
+                  />
+                )}
+              </div>
+            ) : (
+              <div
+                className={cn(
+                  showSideBySide && !isDateGroup ? "order-1" : undefined,
+                  isContinuousSingleQuestion && "md:hidden",
+                  showSideBySide &&
+                    !isDateGroup &&
+                    !isContinuousSingleQuestion &&
+                    "sm:max-w-[200px]",
+                  hideCP &&
+                    !isContinuousSingleQuestion &&
+                    (isDateGroup || isFanGraph) &&
+                    "flex w-full justify-center"
+                )}
+              >
+                {hideCP && !isContinuousSingleQuestion ? (
+                  <RevealCPButton />
+                ) : (
+                  <ConsumerQuestionPrediction postData={postData} />
+                )}
+              </div>
+            )}
             {!isFanGraph && !isDateGroup && (
               <QuestionTimeline
                 postData={postData}
                 keyFactors={postData.key_factors}
-                isConsumerView={!isContinuousSingleQuestion}
+                isConsumerView={true}
                 preselectedGroupQuestionId={preselectedGroupQuestionId}
                 className={cn(
                   "hidden sm:block",
-                  showSideBySide && "order-2 mt-0 flex-1"
+                  showSideBySide && "order-2 mt-0 flex-1",
+                  isContinuousSingleQuestion && "mt-0"
                 )}
               />
             )}
@@ -263,18 +318,23 @@ const QuestionPageShell: FC<Props> = ({
     <QuestionLayoutProvider>
       <QuestionVariantComposer
         consumer={
-          <ConsumerShell
-            postData={postData}
-            preselectedGroupQuestionId={preselectedGroupQuestionId}
-            mobileSidebar={mobileSidebar}
-          />
+          <ContinuousChartCursorProvider>
+            {/* Bridges timeline cursor to the mobile mini chart in consumer view */}
+            <ConsumerShell
+              postData={postData}
+              preselectedGroupQuestionId={preselectedGroupQuestionId}
+              mobileSidebar={mobileSidebar}
+            />
+          </ContinuousChartCursorProvider>
         }
         forecaster={
-          <ForecasterShell
-            postData={postData}
-            preselectedGroupQuestionId={preselectedGroupQuestionId}
-            mobileSidebar={mobileSidebar}
-          />
+          <ContinuousChartCursorProvider>
+            <ForecasterShell
+              postData={postData}
+              preselectedGroupQuestionId={preselectedGroupQuestionId}
+              mobileSidebar={mobileSidebar}
+            />
+          </ContinuousChartCursorProvider>
         }
       />
     </QuestionLayoutProvider>