PolicyEngine · MaxGhenis · Feb 12, 2026
diff --git a/app/public/assets/posts/missouri-transitional-benefits.png b/app/public/assets/posts/missouri-transitional-benefits.png
diff --git a/app/public/assets/posts/validating-unemployment-insurance-estimates.png b/app/public/assets/posts/validating-unemployment-insurance-estimates.png
diff --git a/app/public/charts/validating-unemployment-insurance-estimates/validation.html b/app/public/charts/validating-unemployment-insurance-estimates/validation.html
@@ -0,0 +1,125 @@
+<!DOCTYPE html>
+<html>
+<head>
+  <meta charset="utf-8">
+  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
+  <link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:wght@400;500;600&display=swap" rel="stylesheet">
+  <style>
+    * { margin: 0; padding: 0; box-sizing: border-box; }
+    body { font-family: 'Inter', sans-serif; background: white; }
+    #root { width: 100%; height: 100vh; padding: 20px; }
+    .chart-container { width: 100%; height: 100%; position: relative; }
+    .logo { position: absolute; bottom: 10px; right: 10px; height: 24px; opacity: 0.8; }
+    .title { text-align: center; font-size: 18px; font-weight: 600; color: #344054; margin-bottom: 20px; }
+  </style>
+</head>
+<body>
+  <div id="root"></div>
+  <script type="module">
+    import React from 'https://esm.sh/react@18';
+    import ReactDOM from 'https://esm.sh/react-dom@18/client';
+    import { BarChart, Bar, XAxis, YAxis, CartesianGrid, Tooltip, Legend, ReferenceLine, ResponsiveContainer, LabelList } from 'https://esm.sh/recharts@2.12.7';
+
+    const data = [
+      {
+        name: 'Total Benefits',
+        'Raw CPS': 64,
+        'PolicyEngine': 98,
+        rawAbs: '$25.6B',
+        peAbs: '$39.1B',
+        adminAbs: '$40.0B'
+      },
+      {
+        name: 'Recipients',
+        'Raw CPS': 59,
+        'PolicyEngine': 104,
+        rawAbs: '3.2M',
+        peAbs: '5.6M',
+        adminAbs: '5.4M'
+      },
+    ];
+
+    const CustomTooltip = ({ active, payload, label }) => {
+      if (active && payload && payload.length) {
+        const dataPoint = data.find(d => d.name === label);
+        return React.createElement('div', {
+          style: {
+            background: 'white',
+            border: '1px solid #319795',
+            borderRadius: '8px',
+            padding: '12px',
+            boxShadow: '0 2px 8px rgba(0,0,0,0.15)'
+          }
+        }, [
+          React.createElement('p', { key: 'label', style: { fontWeight: 600, marginBottom: '8px', color: '#344054' } }, label),
+          ...payload.map((entry, index) =>
+            React.createElement('p', { key: index, style: { color: entry.color, margin: '4px 0' } }, [
+              React.createElement('span', { key: 'name', style: { fontWeight: 500 } }, `${entry.name}: `),
+              `${entry.value}%`,
+              React.createElement('span', { key: 'abs', style: { color: '#666', marginLeft: '8px' } },
+                `(${entry.name === 'Raw CPS' ? dataPoint.rawAbs : dataPoint.peAbs})`
+              )
+            ])
+          ),
+          React.createElement('p', { key: 'admin', style: { color: '#344054', marginTop: '8px', fontSize: '13px' } },
+            `Admin total: ${dataPoint.adminAbs}`
+          )
+        ]);
+      }
+      return null;
+    };
+
+    const Chart = () => React.createElement('div', { className: 'chart-container' }, [
+      React.createElement('div', { key: 'title', className: 'title' }, 'UI Estimates as Percentage of Administrative Data (2024)'),
+      React.createElement(ResponsiveContainer, { key: 'chart', width: '100%', height: '85%' },
+        React.createElement(BarChart, { data, margin: { top: 30, right: 30, left: 20, bottom: 20 } }, [
+          React.createElement(CartesianGrid, { key: 'grid', strokeDasharray: '3 3', stroke: '#e5e7eb', vertical: false }),
+          React.createElement(XAxis, {
+            key: 'x',
+            dataKey: 'name',
+            tick: { fill: '#344054', fontSize: 14 },
+            axisLine: { stroke: '#e5e7eb' },
+            tickLine: false
+          }),
+          React.createElement(YAxis, {
+            key: 'y',
+            domain: [0, 125],
+            ticks: [25, 50, 75, 100, 125],
+            tick: { fill: '#344054', fontSize: 12 },
+            axisLine: { stroke: '#e5e7eb' },
+            tickLine: false,
+            label: { value: '% of Administrative Total', angle: -90, position: 'insideLeft', style: { fill: '#344054', fontSize: 13 } }
+          }),
+          React.createElement(Tooltip, { key: 'tooltip', content: React.createElement(CustomTooltip) }),
+          React.createElement(Legend, {
+            key: 'legend',
+            wrapperStyle: { paddingTop: '10px' },
+            formatter: (value) => React.createElement('span', { style: { color: '#344054' } }, value)
+          }),
+          React.createElement(ReferenceLine, {
+            key: 'ref',
+            y: 100,
+            stroke: '#344054',
+            strokeDasharray: '5 5',
+            strokeWidth: 1.5
+          }),
+          React.createElement(Bar, { key: 'cps', dataKey: 'Raw CPS', fill: '#94a3b8', radius: [4, 4, 0, 0] },
+            React.createElement(LabelList, { dataKey: 'Raw CPS', position: 'top', formatter: (v) => `${v}%`, style: { fill: '#344054', fontSize: 14, fontWeight: 500 } })
+          ),
+          React.createElement(Bar, { key: 'pe', dataKey: 'PolicyEngine', fill: '#319795', radius: [4, 4, 0, 0] },
+            React.createElement(LabelList, { dataKey: 'PolicyEngine', position: 'top', formatter: (v) => `${v}%`, style: { fill: '#344054', fontSize: 14, fontWeight: 500 } })
+          )
+        ])
+      ),
+      React.createElement('img', {
+        key: 'logo',
+        className: 'logo',
+        src: '../../assets/logos/policyengine/teal.png',
+        alt: 'PolicyEngine'
+      })
+    ]);
+
+    ReactDOM.createRoot(document.getElementById('root')).render(React.createElement(Chart));
+  </script>
+</body>
+</html>
diff --git a/app/src/data/apps/apps.json b/app/src/data/apps/apps.json
@@ -1,4 +1,17 @@
 [
+  {
+    "type": "iframe",
+    "slug": "missouri-transitional-benefits",
+    "title": "How Missouri's Transitional Benefits Program reshapes cliffs",
+    "description": "Interactive analysis of how Missouri SB 82's transitional benefits program redistributes SNAP cliffs across the income distribution, with multi-year capitalization effects computed using PolicyEngine-US",
+    "source": "https://missouri-transitional-benefits.vercel.app",
+    "tags": ["us", "us-mo", "policy", "interactives"],
+    "countryId": "us",
+    "displayWithResearch": true,
+    "image": "missouri-transitional-benefits.png",
+    "date": "2026-02-12 12:00:00",
+    "authors": ["max-ghenis"]
+  },
   {
     "type": "iframe",
     "slug": "state-legislative-tracker",

diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/notebooks/validating-ui-estimates.py b/app/src/data/posts/notebooks/validating-ui-estimates.py
@@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
+# %% [markdown]
+# # Validating PolicyEngine unemployment insurance estimates
+#
+# This notebook compares PolicyEngine's UI estimates against administrative data.
+
+# %%
+from policyengine_us import Microsimulation
+import pandas as pd
+
+# %% [markdown]
+# ## PolicyEngine estimates (2025)
+
+# %%
+sim = Microsimulation(dataset="enhanced_cps_2024")
+sim.default_calculation_period = 2025
+
+# Total UI benefits
+pe_total_benefits = sim.calculate("unemployment_compensation").sum() / 1e9
+print(f"PolicyEngine total UI benefits: ${pe_total_benefits:.1f}B")
+
+# Recipients (people with UI > 0)
+ui = sim.calculate("unemployment_compensation")
+weights = sim.calculate("person_weight")
+pe_recipients = (weights * (ui > 0)).sum() / 1e6
+print(f"PolicyEngine UI recipients: {pe_recipients:.1f}M")
+
+# %% [markdown]
+# ## Administrative totals
+#
+# Sources:
+# - CBO Budget Projections (March 2024): https://www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data
+# - DOL UI Data Summary: https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/claimssum.asp
+
+# %%
+# CBO projects $40B in UI benefits for 2025
+cbo_total = 40.0  # billions
+
+# DOL historical data suggests ~5.4M recipients annually in non-recession years
+dol_recipients = 5.4  # millions
+
+print(f"CBO projected UI benefits: ${cbo_total:.1f}B")
+print(f"DOL estimated recipients: {dol_recipients:.1f}M")
+
+# %% [markdown]
+# ## Raw CPS comparison
+
+# %%
+# Raw CPS without enhancement
+sim_raw = Microsimulation(dataset="cps_2024")
+sim_raw.default_calculation_period = 2025
+
+raw_total = sim_raw.calculate("unemployment_compensation").sum() / 1e9
+ui_raw = sim_raw.calculate("unemployment_compensation")
+weights_raw = sim_raw.calculate("person_weight")
+raw_recipients = (weights_raw * (ui_raw > 0)).sum() / 1e6
+
+print(f"Raw CPS total UI benefits: ${raw_total:.1f}B")
+print(f"Raw CPS UI recipients: {raw_recipients:.1f}M")
+
+# %% [markdown]
+# ## Summary comparison
+
+# %%
+comparison = pd.DataFrame({
+    "Source": ["Raw CPS", "External (CBO/DOL)", "PolicyEngine"],
+    "Total Benefits ($B)": [raw_total, cbo_total, pe_total_benefits],
+    "Recipients (M)": [raw_recipients, dol_recipients, pe_recipients]
+})
+comparison = comparison.round(1)
+print(comparison.to_markdown(index=False))
+
+# %% [markdown]
+# ## Deviation from admin totals
+
+# %%
+pe_benefits_pct = (pe_total_benefits - cbo_total) / cbo_total * 100
+pe_recipients_pct = (pe_recipients - dol_recipients) / dol_recipients * 100
+raw_benefits_pct = (raw_total - cbo_total) / cbo_total * 100
+raw_recipients_pct = (raw_recipients - dol_recipients) / dol_recipients * 100
+
+print(f"PolicyEngine vs admin:")
+print(f"  Benefits: {pe_benefits_pct:+.1f}%")
+print(f"  Recipients: {pe_recipients_pct:+.1f}%")
+print(f"\nRaw CPS vs admin:")
+print(f"  Benefits: {raw_benefits_pct:+.1f}%")
+print(f"  Recipients: {raw_recipients_pct:+.1f}%")