Skip to content

Add ONS land value calibration targets#292

Merged
vahid-ahmadi merged 4 commits intomainfrom
add-ons-land-value-targets
Mar 16, 2026
Merged

Add ONS land value calibration targets#292
vahid-ahmadi merged 4 commits intomainfrom
add-ons-land-value-targets

Conversation

@vahid-ahmadi
Copy link
Collaborator

Summary

  • Adds 4 aggregate land/property wealth calibration targets from the ONS National Balance Sheet 2025, so the weight optimiser can pull model estimates toward officially measured values
  • The model currently estimates ~£10.8tn total land for 2026, but ONS measured £7.1tn for 2024 — without calibration targets the uprating indices overshoot
  • Targets: household_land_value (£5.04tn), corporate_land_value (£2.06tn), land_value (£7.10tn), property_wealth (£7.10tn)

Changes

File Change
targets/sources/ons_land_values.py New target source: 4 targets derived from ONS 2024 measured total (£7.1tn), splitting household/corporate proportionally from 2020 breakdown
targets/compute/other.py New compute_land_value() function
targets/compute/__init__.py Export compute_land_value
targets/build_loss_matrix.py Import + dispatch routing for the 4 land/property target names

Sources

Test plan

  • Verified targets are discoverable via get_all_targets(year=2026) — returns all 4 with correct values
  • Run full calibration pipeline to confirm targets are included in the loss matrix
  • Compare pre/post calibration land value aggregates

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@vahid-ahmadi vahid-ahmadi self-assigned this Mar 16, 2026
vahid-ahmadi and others added 3 commits March 16, 2026 11:54
Marked xfail until recalibration runs with the new targets.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@vahid-ahmadi vahid-ahmadi merged commit 3c5cc64 into main Mar 16, 2026
3 checks passed
Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment

Labels

None yet

Projects

None yet

Development

Successfully merging this pull request may close these issues.

1 participant