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Add Manifold Markets prediction probability badges to bill cards#141

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MaxGhenis wants to merge 1 commit intomainfrom
add-manifold-markets
Open

Add Manifold Markets prediction probability badges to bill cards#141
MaxGhenis wants to merge 1 commit intomainfrom
add-manifold-markets

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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Mar 15, 2026

Summary

  • Adds live Manifold Markets prediction probability badges to bill cards in the state panel
  • New ManifoldBadge component fetches current probability from the Manifold API and renders a clickable badge
  • Bill-to-market mapping stored in src/data/manifoldMarkets.js (to be migrated to Supabase column later)
  • Initial markets: SC H.4216 (income tax reform) and SC H.3492 (refundable EITC)

Test plan

  • Verify SC panel shows probability badges next to H4216
  • Verify badge links to correct Manifold market
  • Verify bills without markets show no badge
  • Verify badge doesn't interfere with bill card click-to-analyze behavior

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Shows live prediction market probability next to bill numbers for bills
that have associated Manifold Markets. Fetches probability on mount via
the Manifold API and renders a clickable badge linking to the market.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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